http://lib.buet.ac.bd;localhosthttp://:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/640 Post graduate dissertations (Theses) of Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM) Wed, 08 Apr 2026 02:23:05 GMT 2026-04-08T02:23:05Z http://lib.buet.ac.bd;localhosthttp://:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/7239 Determination of occurrence probability and frequency analysis of maximum surge level of tropical cyclone along the exposed coast of Bangladesh Anisul Haque; Anika Tahsin; 0417282051; 627.42095492/ANI/2024 The coastal region of Bangladesh is repeatedly battered by major cyclones from the Bay of Bengal (BOB) almost every year. The majority of the destruction caused by cyclones in Bangladesh is due to storm surges that can completely inundate offshore islands and vast coastal areas, particularly the exterior coast, which is the first tier of the coastal belt. Therefore, a thorough investigation of cyclonic activity is crucial for effective disaster preparedness and mitigation strategies. This study addresses the urgent need for a comprehensive understanding of this phenomenon. It investigates 147 years (1877-2024) of landfalling tropical cyclones, also including the monsoon depressions, across the 12 exposed coastal districts of Bangladesh to develop a detailed and accurate dataset. The study also aims to determine the maximum possible surge levels for different return periods based on historical cyclonic activity. Analysis of past patterns reveals the likelihood of cyclone occurrence in 12 coastal districts, with Chattogram and Cox’s Bazar exhibiting the highest occurrence probability. The western and central coastal districts, including Shatkhira, Khulna, Noakhali, Patuakhali, and Pirojpur, experience a notably higher frequency of Tropical Cyclones and Monsoon Depressions during the monsoon period. For the computation of maximum surge level, Bangladesh Delta Model (BDM), which is developed in the Delft3D numerical model platform, was simulated for the past 51 cyclones in a coupled surge-wave environment. Among all simulated scenarios, Feni district emerged as the most susceptible to extreme tidal surges, with a simulated maximum surge level of 6.98 meters. Frequency analysis further highlights the differential risks across districts. Feni district exhibits the highest 100-year surge level, reaching 5.93 meters. For Chattogram and Cox’s Bazar, there's a 1% chance of surge levels reaching 4.58 and 3.94 meters, respectively. In contrast, Bagerhat district has the lowest 50- and 100-year return period surge levels, at 2.04 and 2.21 meters, respectively. For a holistic understanding of the collective impact, a tropical cyclone and monsoon depression hazard assessment was undertaken for the 12 coastal districts. The assessment indicated that Chattogram exhibited the highest and Lakshmipur was found to be the lowest on the tropical cyclone and monsoon depression hazard assessment among the 12 exposed coastal districts. A comprehensive understanding of historical landfall patterns can inform both short-term and long-term development strategies. Analyzing spatial and temporal variations in coastal surge behavior can help identify vulnerable areas and optimize mitigation efforts. Additionally, assessing maximum surge levels for different return periods can guide the design of resilient coastal infrastructure and polder systems. By gaining insights into the extent of the problem, relevant authorities can implement effective measures to reduce cyclone-related damage in Bangladesh. Sat, 21 Dec 2024 00:00:00 GMT http://lib.buet.ac.bd;localhosthttp://:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/7239 2024-12-21T00:00:00Z http://lib.buet.ac.bd;localhosthttp://:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/7238 Assessing the impacts of integrated farming on food security and livelihoods in a coastal area of Bangladesh Saha, Dr. Debanjali; Farhana Parvin; 0421282022; 627.52095492/FAR/2025 Coastal regions of Bangladesh face mounting environmental challenges that threaten agricultural sustainability and food security, with salinity intrusion, climate change impacts, and natural disasters, particularly affecting the south-western areas. While traditional monoculture farming struggles to address these challenges, Integrated Farming (IF) systems that combine rice, fish, and vegetable cultivation show promise. However, there remains a critical knowledge gap regarding the quantifiable benefits of IF compared to conventional practices, particularly in terms of water resource optimization, food security enhancement, and livelihood improvement in saline-prone areas. This study examines the effectiveness of integrated farming systems in Dumuria Upazila, Khulna district, employing a comprehensive analytical framework that uniquely combines the Livelihood Assessment Index (LAI) and Food Security Index (FSI). The research specifically investigates how IF influences irrigation water management, food security status, and overall livelihood outcomes in this moderately saline-prone region of south-western Bangladesh. Using a mixed-method research design, the study gathered data through household surveys, Key Informant Interviews (KIIs), and field measurements. The methodology incorporated the FAO CROPWAT 8.0 model with ClimWAT 2.0 climatic data for irrigation calculations, alongside carefully constructed multi-dimensional indicators for assessing food security and livelihood impacts. This approach enabled a holistic evaluation of both quantitative and qualitative aspects of farming system performance. The analysis yielded an LAI score of 0.60, indicating moderate livelihood outcomes across human, financial, physical, social, and natural capital dimensions. Similarly, the FSI score of 0.70 demonstrates moderate food security achievement across availability, access, utilization, and stability parameters. Despite these positive outcomes, the study identified persistent challenges including inadequate irrigation infrastructure and production variability. Nevertheless, Integrated Farming practice has some significant potential to for up-scaling, for environmentally sustainable agricultural practice in coastal Bangladesh. In future, more precise and advanced research with higher number of ghers is recommended to shed more light on the benefits and challenges of this practice. This research makes two primary contributions: theoretically, it advances understanding of how integrated farming systems contribute to building resilience in climate-vulnerable coastal regions by establishing clear linkages between sustainable agricultural practices and improved socio-economic outcomes. Practically, it provides evidence-based recommendations for irrigation water management and resource optimization that can guide policymakers, extension services, and development practitioners in fostering sustainable agricultural systems. These findings have particular significance for developing resilient farming approaches in coastal regions facing similar environmental challenges globally. Tue, 14 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT http://lib.buet.ac.bd;localhosthttp://:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/7238 2025-01-14T00:00:00Z http://lib.buet.ac.bd;localhosthttp://:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/7236 Future role of non-government organizations in climate change adaptation in Bangladesh Rezaur Rahman, Dr. Md.; Arif Chowdhury, Md.; 0419282021; 627.4095492/ARI/2024 Bangladesh is one of the most susceptible countries to climate change, while geographical and socioeconomic characteristics are accelerating the adverse condition. Following the increasing effects of climate change, it is crucial to focus on adaptation approaches to ensure sustainable adaptation practices with the participation of government and non-government organizations in Bangladesh. Since independence, Non-Government Organizations (NGOs) have been playing a significant role in various fields like empowerment, gender, climate change, disaster management, health, income generation, and awareness building in the development of Bangladesh. Over the last few decades, trained manpower and capacity have been built in Bangladesh by NGOs, which can be utilized to facilitate the adaptations. This study was conducted in the Southwest region of Bangladesh to understand how NGOs may act regarding climate change adaptation. An assessment of 28 national regulatory frameworks was done following content analysis and text-mining approaches to fulfill the objectives. An inventory of NGOs on different aspects like vision, mission, key focus areas, duration of work (years), number of working areas, programs, and manpower was prepared. An inventory of adaptation activities conducted by NGOs was also prepared. To understand the perception of experts from NGOs, a total of 15 NGOs were purposively selected based on their activities related to climate change in coastal Bangladesh, while a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis was also carried out. Findings reveal that the cumulative number of key terms related to climate change adaptation from the perspective of NGO’s inclusiveness e.g. adaptation, advocacy, NGO/ Non-Government Organizations, climate change, emergency, resilience, collaboration, etc., has increased in the national-level regulatory frameworks between 1995 and 2022. This shows that the level of inclusiveness of NGOs regarding climate change adaptation has been increasing over time. Not all NGOs are working on climate change equally; they are attempting to incorporate climate change adaptation into their programs and projects in various sectors such as agriculture, empowerment of people, infrastructure, drinking water, disaster management, etc., but to different extents based on the funds, working areas, resources, etc. From the SWOT analysis, it is understood that engagement with the local community, skilled manpower, and rapport building between local people and NGOs due to working for a long time are major strengths of NGOs. Conversely, weaknesses include a lack of knowledge on proposal writing and sources of climate change adaptation funds. Increasing features of technology-based activities and expanding scopes to work on different issues incorporating climate change adaptation like youth engagement, increasing literacy rate, and awareness of communities are recognized as opportunities. Threats may emerge from donor-driven projects that overlook the concepts of NGOs and local communities, and changing economic conditions in the country may reduce the availability of funds for NGOs. Policymakers from the national to local levels may find the insights of this study useful to take necessary actions to ensure the sustainable involvement of NGOs in climate change adaptation-related activities. Sun, 11 Feb 2024 00:00:00 GMT http://lib.buet.ac.bd;localhosthttp://:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/7236 2024-02-11T00:00:00Z http://lib.buet.ac.bd;localhosthttp://:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/7226 Developing drought and heat wave scenarios for southwest Bangladesh using CMIP6 projections Shahjahan Mondal, Dr. Mohammad; Imtiaz, Zahid; 0423282147; 627.4095492/IMT/2025 Southwestern Bangladesh is increasingly becoming vulnerable to droughts and heat waves, which pose significant risks to water security, agricultural productivity, and human health. This study develops drought and heat wave scenarios for the region from 2015 to 2100 using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate projections under SSP126 (sustainability pathway) and SSP585 (fossil fueled development) scenarios. Taylor diagrams and statistical metrics, including root mean square error (RMSE), Pearson correlation coefficient, and standard deviation, were computed using Python programming language to evaluate CMIP6 models against observed data from 1995–2014 at 14 Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) stations. The best-performing models selected were GFDL-CM4 for rainfall, CMCC-ESM2 for temperature, and EC-Earth3 for humidity. Then Quantile Delta Mapping (QDM) was applied to correct biases in the model outputs, aligning the model data with the observed data from the BMD stations. Droughts were assessed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI3) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI3), while heat waves were evaluated based on daily maximum temperatures (≥36°C for 3 consecutive days). Additionally, Heat Index (HI) was calculated for heat stress evaluation (HI > 40°C). The results reveal notable differences between SSP126 and SSP585 scenario. Rainfall shows no significant trend under either scenario. However, temperature increases substantially with SSP126 projecting +1.37°C warming by 2100 and SSP585 showing +2.94°C. The SPI3 drought index indicates no significant trend with near normal condition under both scenarios. However, SPEI3, which incorporates temperature-driven evapotranspiration, shows pronounced divergence: SSP126 maintains relatively moderate drought conditions (2.61 drought months/year by 2100), while SSP585 progresses to severe drought (6.34 months/year by 2100). Heat wave frequency exhibits substantial difference of around 30 days between two scenarios. Under SSP126, heat wave days show modest increases averaging 20-25 days annually throughout the century. However, under SSP585, heat waves escalate dramatically from similar levels to SSP126 until 2050, then increase to 50-58 days annually by 2100, with central and southern coastal areas bearing the highest burden reaching 35-40 days annually. March emerges as the dominant heatwave month under both SSP scenarios, representing a significant temporal shift where the peak heatwave period advances from the historical April-May months to an earlier March onset. Heat Index analysis reveals that SSP126 maintains annual average values below the 40°C heat stress threshold, while SSP585 exceeds the threshold. Moreover, heat stress threshold is exceeded 8.02 months/year under SSP585 scenario compared to 5.49 months/year under the baseline condition. Under SSP585 scenario, southwestern Bangladesh could face catastrophic drought and heatwave conditions. Findings provide scientific evidence for climate change adaptation planning, emphasizing urgent needs for improved water management, heat protection infrastructure, agricultural resilience, and health system. Wed, 18 Jun 2025 00:00:00 GMT http://lib.buet.ac.bd;localhosthttp://:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/7226 2025-06-18T00:00:00Z