Abstract:
The main objectives of planning, designing and operating a power system are to
supply electrical energy to the customers, at an optimal price, maintaining the
specified reliability level. For the future planning of a power system, the load
forecasting is essentially required. The usual approach is to forecast the annual
peak load. However, the load variation, in some cases, is more than 50%
throughout the day. The use of load shape can not effectively take into
consideration the realistic situation to accommodate the load variation of the
consumers in power system planning.
This thesis develops a new technique to forecast the hourly load for the long
term generation planning. The proposed technique establishes a relation between
the forecasted annual peak with the hourly load through some mean values of
load ratios. Acres International Limited, Canada developed a 20 - year 'Power
System Master Plan' (PSMP) for Bangladesh Power Development Board
(BPDB) in August 1995. The planning horizon is from the beginning of Fiscal
Year (FY) 1996 to the end of FY 2015. This thesis also evaluates the reliability
indices and production cost using the probabilistic simulation, segmentation
method, for the FY 2000 to FY 2015. It also compares the reliability indices and
production cost with those obtained in PSMP of Bangladesh Power System
(BPS). The reduced installed capacity and the production costs saving, due to the
use of the developed new technique of hourly load and applying appropriate
simulation method, maintaining the same reliability level, are determined.
