Assessing the livelihood resilience to change in the Sundarban mangrove system due to climate change

Abstract

The Sundarban mangrove forest is a biogenic coast. The impact of human induced climate change is being observed there. The state of the Sundarban ecosystem is changing and coupled with poverty, it makes the livelihood dependent on it more vulnerable. Resilience analysis of livelihood groups offers elements of adaptive strategy to the policy makers for mitigating the vulnerabilities. The study was aimed to assess resilience of Sundarban dependent livelihood groups to climate change induced salinity intrusion after developing an indicator framework through participatory approach Shared learning dialogue and sustainable livelihood assessment are the two key methods followed in this study, Each step of the study i.e., identifying livelihood groups, analysis of the impact of salinity intrusion on Sundarban dependent livelihood, and development of indicator framework for assessing livelihood resilience, was preliminarily conceptualized based on reviewing literatures, and was refined through SLD later, In this study a resilience framework consisting of 24 indicators has been developed to assess the resilience of Sundarban dependent livelihood groups. The indicators were selected from three dimensions; i) productivity, ii) sustainability and iii) risk that describe both the dynamic and static attributes of livelihood resilience. The framework was made operational by developingword scenarios for each indicator. Finally the indicator framework was employed to assess livelihood resilience of the Bawali. The livelihood resilience ofBawali has been found to be 47,8% which indicates relatively low resilience to change in Sundarban mangrove due to climate change induced salinity intrusion, Contribution of natural, [manciaI, physical, human and social capital has been found to be 33,6%, 52,2%, 55,0%, 55.8%, and 48.4%, respectively, while the weights of the capitals are 25, 23, 12, 19 and 19, respectively, So it is seen that contribution of natural capital to resilience is lowest although the weight is highest, which gives indication to prioritize natura! capital in fonnulating adaptation strategy for adaptive governance of the Sundarban socioecological system This stndy gives a directive of asset based adaptation strategy to climate change induced salinity intrusion based on resilience analysis,