Predicting the gas demand in Bangladesh: a sectorwise regional forecast

Abstract

Over the last four and a half decade natural gas ha, emerged as the only fuel that meet~ the hon's share of commercial energy requlTement in Banglade~h, In th,S country <;ecured~upply of energy is synonymous to >upplying of natural gas to a great extent althe present and will remain so for quite sometime in the future. Bemg prodllced by three nallonal and four International Oil Companies, gas is distributed by four distribution companies in four regions while one tranSmiS>lOllcompany is entrusted with the respon~ihi1ity of gm; transmission. Government has a plan to extend gas network to the southern region by founding another distribution company. In view of the growing gas demand In different sectors ViS-3-vis the resource constraint, it is of paramount importance to have a realistic gas dcmand projection along with infrastructure development program. However making a projection energy demand projcction for a country is a difficult task especially for a long-term given the uncertainties involved. Historical consumption patterns in different ,ectors hoth regional and sub-regional basis has been thoroughly studied for the purpose of this thesis. The non-bulk sectors, industrial and captive power sectors in paliicular that have manifested remarkable growth in recent years, have been shldied with special attentIOn. HIstorical gas consnmption indicates a direct link betlveen mdustnal sector gas consnmption and export earning from manufacturing goods. This stndy has identified the high growmg areas for the industrial consumption and other non-bulk :;ectors. Power sector has becn the leading consumer of gas and will remain .'0 in the foreseeable fuhlrc. Forecast for the power sector ga~ demand has been made as envisaged in the Power sector Master Plan Update 2006 for different GDP growth scenarios. No remarkable change in the fertilizer sector is expected. For long term demand forecast in the industrial and captive power sector, industry eategOl)Wise gas demand has been deternlined considering that the dominance of the weavmg sedor will continue. The demand forecast has been presented in three different scenanos VIZ.Base Case, High Case and Low Case. It is felt that meeting the increasing demand would be a great challenge for the country', gas sector.