Future economic and livelihood impact of storm surge disaster under climate change context in a selected polder

Abstract

Coastal area is rich with lots of resources like forest, fisheries, wetland, agricultural land, shrimp farm, salt farm, etc., on which the livelihoods of marginal population depend. About 108 polders and numerous sluice gates have been constructed by Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) under the Coastal Embankment Project (CEP) in the early 60s for increasing agricultural return. The increasing salinity intrusion, sea level rise, cyclone, and storm surge flood along with population pressure strike properties, life and livelihoods of the coastal community. This research deals with the storm surge disaster that affects economy and livelihood of the coastal community at present and in future. This study has been conducted on Polder no-5 including Shyamnagor and small parts of Kaligonj upazilla under Satkhira district that were severely affected by cyclone ‘Aila’. Scarcity of basic needs like drinking water, food, sanitation facility, health care, shelter, livelihood opportunity and subsequently outbreak of diseases like diarrhea and skin diseases forced the affected population to move elsewhere. This study articulates not only the present land use impact of the last cyclone induced storm surge disaster ‘Aila 2009’ but also estimates the impact of future coastal flooding especially in 2030, 2050 and 2100. In this study, storm surge disaster ‘Aila’ is considered as a representative event for comparative analysis. This study has been conducted on the basis of projection for SRES-A1B scenario of AR4, IPCC. About 6.1m surge height has been accounted for cyclone ‘Aila’. This research estimates that the surge height will be 6.9m in 2030, 7.2m in 2050 and 7.5m in 2100 considering the effect of climate change. GIS has been used for spatial analysis to DEM data (30m) of the study area to determine the inundated area of the polder in future. Inundated area for cyclone ‘Aila’ is 22.7% in 2009 which may increase to 41.4% in 2030, 64.2% in 2050 and 86.3% in 2100. This study also estimates future inundated area due to overtopping. Different PRA tools like Focus Group Discussion (FGD), Group Discussion (GD), Social and Resource Mapping, Trend Analysis, Pie Charts and (KII) have been used to generate the information regarding the research. This research translates the inundation related losses from different economic sectors to livelihoods. Rice production has declined by 38% in 2009 from the average production. But in future it may decline by 64% in 2030, 89% in 2050 and almost 100% in 2100. Fish production has been reduced by 50% after last disaster which may be reduced further to 85% by future disaster (e.g. 2100). Destruction of forest cover, livestock and infrastructure are also estimated for the projected years. Most of the livelihood opportunity will be decreased for future storm surge disaster. Only wage labor, temporary fishing and seasonal migration will be the way of sustaining livelihood during future storm surge disasters.