Determination of cost-effective generation mix for the power supply system of Bangladesh

Abstract

In the modern civilisation, power plays a pivotal role in the development of any country. The growth of virtually all the sectors of economy of a country is closely related to the uninterrupted power supply. The onward march of human society would surely hIli through should the power supply remain suspended or interrupted even /Clr a small li.agment of time. The per capita consumption of electricity is a yardstick in measuring the progress report of a country in a given year. In this respect, Bangladesh. compared to other countries. lags far behind. It is yet to go a long way to reach the standards of exploitation and consumption of electricity already achieved by developed countries. In view of the energy resources being scattered. planned development. conservation and pooling of energy resources and improved technology for commercial exploitation of energy from the sun, wind, bio-gas and geo-thermal resources can help meet the growing power demand. The central problem, therefore, is how a country like Bangladesh can ensure adequate supplies of energy to fuel its economic growth in this global environment of scarcity of desired fuels and high costs. To increase the electrification rate and to offset the power deficit in the face of access demand over supply, a substantially large amount of new capacity has to be created. At present many plants are derated due to old age, some have even crossed retirement age and many more have become obsolete, yet they are kept in operation. Such situation always advocates for the expansion or abandonment of the plant facilities. In ii this respect, the factors that are to be considered are the economical and technical life of thc plant facilities, the fuel type and plant technologies, and the various costs of capi tal, fuel and operation and maintenance etc. In this thesis, an attempt has been made to apply a linear programming model to develop an expansion program based on the optimal generation-mix of various power plants in our country taking cognisance of various costs attendant therein. This will ensure meeting the power demand substantially and at the same time, minimising all relevant costs. The resul ts of the model present optimum operating schedules showing the generation-mix of various power plants at various loads (peak, day-peak, oft~peak and base load) throughout the year in the future planning periods. It is expected that the outcome of the applied model will act as a guide for the relevant personnel for efficient tllture plmming of the capital and physical resources to develop an optimum power supply system in our country.