Study of growth pattern of telecommunications services and policy support in Bangladeh

Abstract

Th~ t~ml foreca~tmg can bc de~ined as Ihe proce,~ of e,timming the re~erent event of fUlur~ ba,ed on thc analysis of their p~SI & pre,ent bchavior. This d~fj~ition of for~cu~t1!lgg'VC, nsc to three essenti~l <:h~nlCLeristicsof forecasti~g. Fir:.tly. forecasllng relate, [0 tiJlurc event" It i, the estim~lion of what will happen in future ,econdly, force, are made by analyzing the p~,t & present events which are relev~nt. Anythmg predicted of the future ca~'t be Imn~d a, ('orecasting. It rcquires proper ~n~lp.ing of past & pre,ent event reqnires cenain ,tali,li<:ul & mathematical tools. Telecommunication is one of lhe ha.lic phy,ical infrJ,twdures for economic <levelopmcnt and play, a vit~l role in stimulating cconomi<: growth and improving the quality of lifc, It is buth an industry and an infrastru<:ture which also acts a catalyst fur othcr infra,twctures to grow. With the fast development of technologics. introduction of new scrvi<:es illld fucilitie" recent shift in the activities to information communication technology. it i, n()Wa drivmg force to determine n~tionul strateglCs, objectives ~nd goals. So, it ha, b~c()m~ more unpor(ant as the development oj' (hi, ,cctor is lagging b~hind eomparc to neighbori ng couritrie.l. Thi>; s(udy explaim that cellular mubile t~lephone market has achi~ved exceptional growth dunng 2004.05 of 141 p~r <:ent in its subscriber base and 148 per ecnt during 2004-05. Recent growth in lhe Bangladesh tclecommunicatiun market due to some f,lctors ~uch a, the deregulation of the telecommunication sector, low level> 01" telellensit}', inadcquate fixed phone infrJ,lrue(Ure, and high competition following the entry of two new operator, (Banglalink and Tclctalk). The pU'1'0,e or thi, ,lUdy is 10 measure the growth pattern oj' existing fixed and cellular mobile subscribers, Con,idering this grow(h pauern, (he sub,criber growth rat~ hus heen determined u:,ing lea,t 'quare method for the next five ye~rs and this J'oreca,ted growth ral~ h~, he~n compared with (hc household income lev~1. Moreover, the rcvenuc income from tces and ehargcs by the mobile operJtors ha~ heen mvestIgated and then analynd its etfect on forcign ~urrency reserv~ in B~ngladesh Bank.