Abstract:
This study has been conducted to figure out the changes in salient climatic parameters and
there impacts on rural livelihood as well as to develop a sustainable livelihood framework. Two
villages, namely Chander chak and Mauli at Kalia Upazilla under the coastal district Narail
were chosen as the study area. Three livelihood groups; farmer, fisherman, wage laborer and
also the woman as vulnerable group were selected for the study. The local climate change
condition has been illustrated with observed data and the probabale future scenario has been
extracted from Regional Climate Model (RCM) prediction. This prediction was conveyed to
the local people to express their observation according to their perception. People's information
has been incorporated to the development of the livelihood framework which will provide them
a sustainable livelihood against the climate change context.
In the study area, 73% of the rural people are farmers, 22% are farm laborers and 5% are
fishermen whereas the woman are 50% of the total rural population. From the RCM prediction,
it has been found that the temperature of the study area will rise 3-4°c and the monsoon rainfall
will decrease by 12-15% of the annual rainfall whereas the total annual rainfall will increase by
17%. Following these circumstances, the probable impact on the rural livelihood was worked
out. According to the findings, the farmers overall access to natural capital is 75% which will
come down to 54% in climate change context. The 76% access to the physical capital will be
reduced to 63% due to damages caused by frequent disasters. Due to less productive land and
insecure public property, the financial capital will be affected by 30% of the present condition.
The farm laborers will be similarly affected as the farmers as they mostly are engaged in farm
activities. Annual work days will be 40% less and their financial capital will reduce from 58%
to 44%. The fishermen's fishing activity will reduce to 25% in a year and the fish diversity in
the waterbody will be affected as 40% of fish will be lost from their habitats in future. As the
fishermen are less in number in the village, their access to social capital will reduce from 65%
to 45%. The woman have low access to natural capital which will go down by 30% due to
climate change. Their income generating activities will be reduced and financial capital will
come down from 50% to 40%. For all the livelihood groups, the increasing hot and dry weather
will increase illness by 15% causing more diarrhea, cholera and vector bond diseases. Adaptive
measures like effective use of agricultural lands and waterbodies, infrastructure rehabilitation,
better health care, natural resource conservation, afforstation, etc. are necessary to protect the
livelihood capitals and provide the people a sustainable livelihood in the coming days.
