Abstract:
Probability Distribution and trend analysis are an important concern for a resource
constraint country like Bangladesh. Reliable estimate of probability distribution and
trend analysis with respect to various climatic parameters are a valuable guide for
policy makers in determining return period and risk analysis of flood, drought,
cyclones and other extreme climate events for the fixation of infrastructure required in
future. Again, from trend analysis, gradual change of climatic phenomenon that is,
global warming, global dimming, wetter summer, drier winter etc can be understood.
Standard set of monthly, annual and seasonal data of different climatologic parameters
of different meteorological stations in Bangladesh are analyzed in this study have
been collected from BMD (Bangladesh Meteorological Department) and BARC
(Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council). Different climatologic parameters are
rainfall, temperature, evaporation, relative humidity, bright sunshine hours, wind
speed & solar radiation. Trend analysis and probability distribution study has been
carried out to analyze the data series.
From trend analysis it can be understood that there is a gradual change of climatic
phenomenon in Bangladesh over the last three decades. From the probability
distribution study of different climatic parameters, it can be understood that, particular
variable follows particular probability <jistribution.From the analysis of weighted
average method, best fitted distribution has been fixed for a particular variable of a
particular climatic parameter.
From the analysis of different climatic parameters, it has been predicted that
Bangladesh is in the risk of climate change i.e. global warming due to increase in
overall temperature. Again, increasing tendency of relative humidity along with
increasing rate of rainfall in summer predominating wetter summer and decreasing
tendency of relative humidity along with decreasing rate of rainfall in winter indicates
drier winter.
