Identification and prediction of suitability of selected climatic parameters on major crops of Bangladesh

Abstract

Agriculture is always vulnerable to unfavorable weather events and climate conditions. Despite technological advances such as improved crop varieties and irrigation systems, weather and climate are important factors, which playa significant role to agricultural productivity. Rainfall, temperature and relative humidity are the main climatic factors for the agricultural production. The study has depicted the changing pattern of rainfall, temperature and relative humidity based on recent 29 years (1980-2008) climate data in 25 metrological stations for the selected major crops like rice, jute and sugarcane and the change of those climatic parameters have been found to be significant during this period. From this study, depending on changing pattern of climatic parameters and ideal climatic condition the suitable zones are identified and also extending the trend of climatic parameters upto 2030, 2050, 2100 and compare it with the ideal climatic condition the suitable zones are predicted for rice (Aus, Aman, Bora), jute and sugarcane. Rice is the staple food for above 150 million populations of Bangladesh. The cultivation of rice (Aus, Aman and Bora) in Bangladesh varies according to seasonal changes. Aus are cultivated scattered in most of the districts. From the analysis of recent 29 years data it is observed that from 25 districts 23 districts are the possible suitable zones for Aus rice production. For 2030, 2050, 2100, from 25 districts 21 districts, 18 districts and 16 districts might be the possible suitable zones for Aus rice production. Aman is also grown almost everywhere in Bangladesh. From the analysis of recent 29 years data it is observed that from 25 districts all districts are the possible suitable zones for Aman rice production. For 2030, 2050, 2100 years, from 25 districts 24 districts, 22 districts and 15 districts might be the possible suitable zones for Aman production. Boro is also grown almost in all the districts of Bangladesh. From the analysis of recent 29 years data it is observed that from 25 districts 24 districts are the possible suitable zones for Bora rice production. For 2030, 2050, 2100, from 25 districts 24 districts, 24 districts and 19 districts might be the possible suitable zones for Bora rice production. Jute is one of the most important crops in terms of cultivation and usage. From the analysis of recent 29 years data it is observed that from 17 districts 15 districts are the possible suitable zones for Jute production. For 2030,2050,2100, from 17s districts 14 districts, 11 districts and 8 districts might be the possible suitable zones for Jute production. Sugarcane is one of the most important cash crops of the country. From the analysis of recent 29 years data it is observed that from 23 districts 16 districts are the possible suitable zones for Sugarcane production. For 2030, 2050, 2100, from 23 districts 15 districts, 14 districts and 11 districts might be the possible suitable zones for Sugarcane production.