Demand forecasting of instant power supply (IPS) units: a case study

Abstract

This thesis simply highlights the general principles of Forecasting and to point out how this approach has been and can be used to improve the market demand forecasting of seasonal durable electrical/ electronic products. This work has been specified for market demand forecasting of Instant Power Supply (IPS) units manufactured by Rahimafrooz. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze forecasting principles and application of its various models to forecast the demand of IPS, more accurately, along with the target of minimizing errors. Forecasts are very vital to every business organization and for every significant management decisions. Forecasting is the basis of corporate long-run planning. In finance and accounting – forecast provide the basis for budgetary planning and cost control. Marketing relies on sales forecasting to plan new product, compensate sale personnel, and make other key decisions. Production and operations personnel use forecasts to make periodic decisions about production planning, scheduling and inventory. Rahimafrooz, a leading business enterprise of Bangladesh, is manufacturing and marketing very IPS units. Instant Power Supply (IPS) Units of Rahimafrooz is incorporated with latest inverter technology and built in microprocessor based control unit that continuously monitors and controls the automatic functions of IPS units. The IPS is designed to meet emergency power requirements for home and office appliances like computers, tube light, fan, television, refrigerator, air conditioners, ovens, fax, PABX etc, and has the provision to plug in directly with the main electric supply. To predict the market demand of IPS, currently judgmental qualitative forecast is done, which often leads to highly erroneous estimation. To cope up with the market demand and competition, more accuracy in forecast is essential. As such, quantitative forecast needs to be employed. A good forecast can help the management team to make the best decision. This project aims at helping to improve its current forecast process. This project also aims at setting the the forecast process of Instant Power Supply Units and increasing the accuracy of the forecasts. Nineteen (19) forecasts models have been created by using Excel Data Analysis on two models of most demanding IPS manufactured by Rahimafrooz. The best foresting model of each model of product is selected. A high accuracy forecast enhances the relationship between Rahimafrooz and its customers. Intangible benefit, such as better shelf availability, can be obtained. Hence, both the company and the customers can be benefited.