Abstract:
This study has been conducted to figure out the changes in salient climatic parameters and there impacts on rural livelihood as well as to develop a sustainable livelihood framework. Two villages, namely Chander chak and Mauli at Kalia Upazilla under the coastal district Narail were chosen as the study area. Three livelihood groups; farmer, fisherman, wage laborer and also the woman as vulnerable group were selected for the study. The local climate change condition has been illustrated with observed data and the probabale future scenario has been extracted from Regional Climate Model (RCM) prediction. This prediction was conveyed to the local people to express their observation according to their perception. People’s information has been incorporated to the development of the livelihood framework which will provide them a sustainable livelihood against the climate change context.
In the study area, 73% of the rural people are farmers, 22% are farm laborers and 5% are fishermen whereas the woman are 50% of the total rural population. From the RCM prediction, it has been found that the temperature of the study area will rise 3-4°c and the monsoon rainfall will decrease by 12-15% of the annual rainfall whereas the total annual rainfall will increase by 17%. Following these circumstances, the probable impact on the rural livelihood was worked out. According to the findings, the farmers overall access to natural capital is 75% which will come down to 54% in climate change context. The 76% access to the physical capital will be reduced to 63% due to damages caused by frequent disasters. Due to less productive land and insecure public property, the financial capital will be affected by 30% of the present condition. The farm laborers will be similarly affected as the farmers as they mostly are engaged in farm activities. Annual work days will be 40% less and their financial capital will reduce from 58% to 44%. The fishermen’s fishing activity will reduce to 25% in a year and the fish diversity in the waterbody will be affected as 40% of fish will be lost from their habitats in future. As the fishermen are less in number in the village, their access to social capital will reduce from 65% to 45%. The woman have low access to natural capital which will go down by 30% due to climate change. Their income generating activities will be reduced and financial capital will come down from 50% to 40%. For all the livelihood groups, the increasing hot and dry weather will increase illness by 15% causing more diarrhea, cholera and vector bond diseases. Adaptive measures like effective use of agricultural lands and waterbodies, infrastructure rehabilitation, better health care, natural resource conservation, afforstation, etc. are necessary to protect the livelihood capitals and provide the people a sustainable livelihood in the coming days.
