Assessment of human health vulnerability to climate change in Bangladesh

Abstract

Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. Global warming is only to worsen the situation by increasingnatural hazards and enhancing socio-economic vulnerable condition. The impacts on health include: Increased frequencies of heat waves; more variable precipitation patterns compromising the supply of freshwater, higher risks of water-borne diseases; and a rise in coastal flooding due to rising sea levels, etc. In this context, a study has been proposed to identify the possible risks of climate change on human health and assess the vulnerability for different regions of Bangladesh.This study projects the vulnerability index for a base period 2011 for 64 districts of Bangladesh and compares it with two future climate change vulnerability index scenarios for2050 and 2080.Climate sensitive Health vulnerability Index Method is used for the purpose of assessing the present and future climate change vulnerability as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.Depending upon the changes in the exposer layers and adaptive capacity of the different districts of Bangladesh, the health vulnerability shows a different view. Historical data from 1971–2000 as daily maximum and minimum temperature and daily average precipitation were used to assess exposure in respect to the base period. Future projections for RCP 8.5 for MPI-MPI-ESM dataset were used to estimate future exposure. Carrying out of the assessment of Human health vulnerability has revealed some important scenarios in Bangladesh. It has found that Cox's Bazar, Barguna, Narail, Feni and Rangamati are the top most health vulnerable districts in Bangladesh. Some diseases like Dengue, Malaria and Cholera are sensitive to temperature and precipitation patterns. Bandarban, Rangamati, Khagrachari, Cox's Bazar, Chittagong and the northeastern districts are particularly vulnerable to the climate sensitive disease Malaria, whereas the districts that are vulnerable to Dengue are Dhaka, Chittagong and Khulna. The coastal districts are vulnerable to Cholera. Changes in temperature and precipitation in different districts in different time period in the future will also change in vulnerabilities for particular diseases. The maps presented this paper have shown the future indication of the vulnerable districts during 2050s and 2080s. Such information will be helpful for the planners and policy makers to identify more details of the vulnerabilities and for effective planning and management to reduce the risks.