Prospect of LNG use in current Bangladesh market

Abstract

Bangladesh is aspiring to reach the middle-income country status by 2021 and a developed country by 2041.Industrialization and job creation are the key challenges for country’s steady growth rate and development. For industrialization the country needs reliable and quality supply of energy at an affordable rate. Per capita consumption of commercial energy and electricity in Bangladesh is one of the lowest among the developing countries.At present, around 90% of the people have access to electricity and per capita generation (including captive power) is only 464 kWh in Bangladesh. To achieve targeted GDP 587,665 million USD by 2041, country’s total energy demand will be 130,827 ktoe. According to the Power System Master Plan, under long-term plan, there are targets of achieving electricity generation capacity of 24,000 MW by 2021, 40,000 MW by 2030 and 60,000 MW by 2041. At present, country’s 63.31% electricity is generated by natural gas. Country’s almost 68 percent of commercial energy is provided from indigenous natural gas. By current statistics, country’s remaining natural gas reserve is only 11.43 TCF at June 2018 and at current production rate it will be exhausted in the next 10 years. Country’s gas demand has already surpassed about 3688 MMCFD whereas the average supply of gas is around 2663 MMCFD out of 2750 MMCFD capacity, leaving a shortfall of about 1025 MMCFD. Natural gas supply shortage against its demand constrains country’s development. As for immediate remedy government of Bangladesh decided to import 500MMSCFD LNG and consequently signed agreement with Qatar’s RasGas to supply 2.5 million mt/year of lean LNG for 15 years. According to the terminal use agreement (TUA), Excelerate Energy Bangladesh Ltd. (EBBL) have set an floating storage regasification unit (FSRU) at Moheshkhali for supplying 500 MMSCFD re-gasified LNG. RLNG is likely to be supplied to the gas grid. Bangladesh is searching for affordable energy sourcing options and planning for energy diversifications. To diversify the energy mix various conventional and non-conventional energy sourcing options need to be thoroughly examined. The proposed project aims to evaluate LNG’s prospects in power generation, industrial, transportation, commercial, and domestic sector with the consideration of cost effectiveness and environmental impacts compared to existing alternative fuels. The proposed project also aims to analyze the effect on consumer level gas price due to import of LNG and the minimum price for Government’s no profit no subsidy position if the gas from LNG is mixed with the existing pipe line gas and LNG price adaptation in Bangladesh with respect to international fuel price This study covers the latest energy sector scenario, LNG process chain, discussion of world LNG and other existing alternative fuels pricing system, forecasting consumer level cost and comparison among LNG and other existing alternative fuels at international market price.