Risk analysis of marine accident in inland waterways of Bangladesh using fault tree analysis method

Abstract

As a riverine country, the inland waterways of Bangladesh plays a vital role in transportation of goods and personnel throughout the country in all seasons. But these waterways are not guaranteed to be safe for navigation due to effect of multiple factors. In last decades within 1981 to 2018 about 604 marine accidents in inland waterways of Bangladesh tools more than 5407 valuable lives. Due to the unique geographic location, complex navigation environment and intense vessel traffic, a considerable number of maritime accidents occurred in Bangladesh. Marine accidents adversely affect the human, the marine environment and properties and activities abroad ships and ashore in various forms and degree of extent. The effects of accidents vary from minor injuries to fatalities and form insignificant damage to very severe damage to the environment and property.

In this study, details analysis and investigation of root causes for marine accident in inland waterways of Bangladesh specially for collision and grounding has been carried out. Based on the data base of marine accidents from 1981 to 2018 collected from Department of Shipping (DOS) and Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA), this thesis conducted a risk analysis of maritime accidents by applying fault tree analysis (FTA) programme for the incidents collision and grounding as occurred. First, the potential problems which cause the collision and grounding accidents have been investigated and determined. Second, the occurrence of accidents has been shown with causal factors by the FTA method. Finally, the significance degree of the initial events causing occurrence of accidents have been put forth. The probability of the basic events as well as top event, i.e. collision and grounding was also calculated using FTA method to estimate or analyse the risk of accident occurrence.

The main reason for the accidents is originating from human error. The significance degree of the initial events cause accidents. For this purpose, an initial event analysis has been carried out. According to the FTA analysis, the first five basic reasons with the biggest share in the occurrence of collision accidents are respectively, faulty maneuver of master (FMM): 11%, violation of procedure or rule (VPR): 9%, lack of experience/training/qualification/competency of officer, master, crew (LETQC): 9%, improper/ uncoordinated avoiding operation (IUAO): 8% and negligence in watch keeping (NWK): 8%. Similarly, the initial events with the biggest share in the occurrence of grounding accidents are respectively, lack of experience/training/ qualification/competency of officer, master, crew (LETQC): 13%, improper steering/course keeping failure by quarter master (ISCCFQM): 10%, in-sufficient/improper marking of navigable channel (IIMNC): 9%, lack of knowledge on avoiding grounding situation (LKAGS): 9% and waterways are not maintained by authority (WWNM): 7%. It has been observed that in grounding accidents, bad weather conditions as well as human error also have an influence on accident occurrence.

FTA models for both collision and grounding has also been developed as bench mark for further analysis of such accidents. An accidents recording report form has prepared for future recording of accidents at international standard. Besides, an accident database of all the accidents occurred for last 38 years (1981 to 2018) with sufficient data and information has been formulated which will ease further analysis of accidents in different dimensions.

At the end of this thesis, based on the outcomes, some viable recommendations have been proposed in order to ensure greater safety of inland vessels of Bangladesh.