Framework of node based transit oriented development index with latent accessibility of walking and NMV modes

Abstract

Compact development with mixed land-use patterns at the urban core and high public transportation use (about 64%) in Dhaka shows Transit Oriented Development's (TOD) high potential. TOD is a devising strategy that can hoist sustainable urban development by fostering amended land policy and synthesis of transport. Sustainable development aspirations are economy, environment, and society, bolstered by TOD, and integrated land use and transport. Historically, many scholars researched station areas using different methods. Measuring or quantifying current TODness across transit nodes, notwithstanding, was overlooked. This research work converges on manifesting a framework for identifying the Node-based TOD index for the potentiality of sustainable development with walking and NVM mode-based connectivity. Five MRT lines and two BRT lines with MRT 6 and BRT 3 in development, ten MRT/BRT hubs, and four multi-modal hubs with TOD potential selected from the expediency report betoken transit orientation. The missing link with these transit developments can be concerning prospects of TODness (TOD index). Some secondary data and questionnaire surveys with macro-level responses have been used as fundamental data sources for analysis. Nine indicators based on the 4D concept of TOD (Density, Diversity, Destination Accessibility, Design) were calculated spatially in a GIS setting to measure the TOD Index. After exacting indicators, the Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis (SMCA) estimated the TOD index for each node’s 800m buffer. The cumulative percent graph was used to assess arrival modes' spatial scope to identify latent accessibility. Regression models based on access distance and cumulative arrival percent have been developed to determine possible walking and NMV accessibility. From the analysis of the urban-transport scenario of Dhaka, it has been observed that population density is higher at core urban area. Also, it has been found that hot spots of residential settlements are on the core and west-southern area of Dhaka. Major road network serving the core and west side of Dhaka has been portrayed from the analysis. From people’s perception-based data analysis it has been found that public transportation is used as the primary commuting mode while walking and NMV have been chosen as secondary access modes. MRT Line 6 has been selected for TOD Index calculation as the study area. The max TOD index value was employed to portray the station-based ranking. Shahbag, Mirpur 11, Agargaon, Kazipara, and Mirpur 10 have scored high with a max index value of 0.87. Those in BD Secretariat, Motijheel, Shewrapara, Uttar South, and DU stations have scored poorly. Sensitivity analysis of 7 scenarios of TOD has been conducted for model robustness, and ranking has remained identical for all scenarios. To better comprehend the TOD index, statistically significant hotspots have been developed with Global Moran's I value greater than 0.5 and identified Mirpur 10, Mirpur 11, and Kaziapara hotspot clusters. From indicator and criteria-based statistical analysis, density and diversity have been identified as the most crucial criteria. Accessibility for TOD is another vital aspect of efficacy. The access distance for walking and NMV has been found 1.2 - 1.4 km and 4 - 4.7 km, respectively. The NMV based TOD has higher potential accessibility than the conventional TOD. Planners and policymakers should practice Bicycle Based TOD (BTOD) for future development strategies. For TOD planning, two powerful strategies (Density-Diversity and Density-Diversity-Accessibility) have been recommended for all stations. Recommended Sustainable development and (re)development policy will improve low-scoring stations' TOD index value. Accessibility and Organizational policies have also been recommended for better planning prospects. Considering non-spatial indicators in the future operation of stations will add a new dimension of research scope to this work with city-based TOD planning potential.