Abstract:
Transport demand in Bangladesh has grown faster than the GDP growth of the country.
Transportation improvements contribute to economic development of a country. Bangladesh
has developed an extensive road infrastructure at the cost of millions of dollars borrowed
from development partners. Lack of policy strategy, inadequate planning and biased regional
focus create investment inefficiency in transport sector of Bangladesh. During the last couple
of decades transportation attracted more than twenty percent of national investment - most of
which is concentrated in road sector. Hence, there exists a scope to analyse the transport
network improvement requirements and investment need in the country. This study develops
a methodological framework to assess the future traffic demand in Bangladesh and analyse
the transportation investment need.
For the purpose of analyzing future transportation investment needs in Bangladesh a model
has been developed. The overall structure of the model developed in the study is traditional in
terms of the sequence of the structural form i.e. Trip Generation and Attraction, Trip
Distribution, Modal Split and then Trip Assignment stages. In the context of Bangladesh, the
data for the 20 greater districts or region is analysed. Mainly interzonal major roads are
considered as network in this study. Road network is developed in SATURN as well as in
TransCAD. Population and GDP data are used for Trip Generation and attraction Model.
Gravity model is used for Trip Distribution and Multimode Logit Model used for Modal split.
From the forecasted data future traffic in road network is assessed. Analysis of future traffic
has been done for the years 2015 and 2025.The impact of traffic on existing network has
suggested some improvement of road network. Among numerous options some options have
been analyzed to see the treated network condition.
In the study, it is observed that network traffic flow condition can be improved by taking
necessary measures. Four laning of major roads; rail service improvement; upgrading of road
condition by improving road geometry; construction of Dhaka-Chittagang expressway are
some measures that have been taken as the improvement treatment of the network to carry
future traffic. It is found that travel time can be saved 44.7% (year 2015) bY-making major
roads four lane. Railway improvement will save 62.75% of travel time of the road
passengers. In this study it has also seen that construction of expressway from Dhaka to
Chittagang will not only be useful for the particular road but it will also have a positive
impact to the entire network. This study is made to develop a tool to view of the future
transportation network scenario and to realize the need for investment in this sector.
