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Bangladesh has set a target to become a high-income country by 2041. Industrialization and job creation are the key factors for its steady growth and development. For industrialization, the country needs a reliable and quality supply of energy at an affordable rate. To achieve its targeted GDP 587,665 million USD by 2041, the country's total energy demand needs to be 130,827 toe. Bangladesh also has a long-term plan to achieve an electricity generation capacity of 40,000 MW by 2030 and 60,000 MW by 2041. At present, 60.44% of the country's electricity is generated by natural gas, and almost 62% of the commercial energy is provided from natural gas. According to current statistics, the remaining natural gas reserve in the country is only 9.3 TCF as of June 2022.
It is projected that the daily demand for natural gas in Bangladesh will be approximately 8,346 MMscfd by 2041. If no new major gas discoveries are made, this demand will have to be met by importing Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). The proposed LNG infrastructure development plans mainly focus on the Chittagong and Cox's Bazaar areas. This will require significant investments in pipelines to transport natural gas to the Southwestern regions of the country. So, to promote the overall economic development of the country, the authorities are aiming to construct a 1,000 MMscfd LNG terminal at Payra, Patuakhali. With the availability of LNG at Payra, it will become necessary to transport LNG to the ultimate consumers in the Southwestern zone. The most economical, easiest, and safest way of continuously transporting such a huge volume of gas is through pipelines.
The objective of this research is to evaluate different options for gas transmission facilities that can ensure reliable gas supply to the Southwestern region. To establish a sustainable gas supply infrastructure, a virtual model has been developed to simulate pipeline performance and suggest solutions for future gas demand. The gas network originates from Payra, Patuakhali, and extends downstream to Khulna and Langalbandh. A detailed study is conducted to assess the current demand and supply of gas, future growth forecasts, and existing gas infrastructure in the Southwestern region.
After analyzing the gas supply situation with simulation software, it was concluded that 309 km transmission pipeline network, comprising a 42-inch diameter 157 km long Payra-Barisal-Takerhat pipeline and a 36-inch diameter 152 km long Khulna-Gopalganj-Takerhat-Langalbandh pipeline can be constructed to supply gas at the right pressure and quantity to the major load centers in the Southwestern region. Nine alternative scenarios were considered to develop a sustainable gas supply infrastructure and this was deemed to be the best option. After a couple of years, when these pipelines become saturated, installing a 111 km 36-inch Barisal-Jhalkathi-Bagherhat-Khulna pipeline can help overcome the bottleneck of the Southwestern Zone network. |
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