Evaluation of Ullapara pourashava master plan considering climate change induced flood

Abstract

Bangladesh is one of the most flood prone countries in the world. A number of research works have identified that the monsoon flood scenario will be aggravated with climate change context in Bangladesh. In 2008, Local Government Engineering Department (LGED) has started to prepare master plan (2011-2031) for 223 Pourashavas in Bangladesh. It is evident from the Terms of Reference (ToR) of the project that it did not consider future climate induced flood scenario which poses a question towards the sustainability of the plan in a flood prone country like Bangladesh. Ullapara Pourashava of Sirajganj district has been selected as a study area to conduct the research. Due to its geo-physical settings this area is most vulnerable to flood and future climate change induced flood will worsen the scenario. The study aims to evaluate the Pourashava Master Plan in the light of climate change induced flood and suggests adaptation strategies in the face of climate change induced flood. The methodology of the study follows GIS based flood exposure analysis of selected infrastructure. Considering the data availability, climate change induced flood for the year 2040 has been used for flood exposure analysis. Based on the exposure analysis the infrastructure plan has been evaluated. These infrastructures include transport and communication infrastructure, educational infrastructure, health infrastructure, and other community facilities. It is evident from the study that infrastructure in Ullapara Pourashava would be highly exposed to climate change induced flood for longer duration. The duration of inundation may stay up to 19 days where about 90.14% land of the whole Pourashava would be exposed to more than 1m inundation level due to climate change. The study also finds that about 33.99% Pucca road will be exposed to 1.5-2m inundation level; proposed one bus terminal would be exposed to 2.5-3.0m inundation level; seven primary school, six secondary school and four colleges would be highly exposed to 2.0-2.50m inundation level; four health facilities would be exposed to 1.0-2.0m inundation level due to future climate change. The study finds that in 2007 flood the physical damage of roads, hospitals, Police Station and Fire service was equivalent to about 8.57 crore Tk. The study also finds that about 17,251 students were in problems to access the educational institutions; about 26,550 patients were in problem to access the health facilities; about 18,180 business men were in trouble with their business due to inundation of road. It is evident that newly proposed infrastructure including educational infrastructure and different urban facilities like community center, waste disposal site will also be highly exposed to future climate change induced flood. This inundation scenario for long duration will lead to dysfunction of concerned infrastructure and, in turn, undermines the stability of a socio-economic system of Ullapara Pourashava. In such a context this study suggests adaptation strategies to cope with the climate change induced flood. To devise adaptation strategies, expert opinions were taken from various organizations. This study suggests that integrated landuse planning, land zoning, height enhancement, relocation, climate proofing material; construction of floodwall may be the adaptation strategies for infrastructure to tackle with climate change induced flood in Ullapara Pourashava. The study suggests some structural interventions to adapt with climate change induced flood. The total cost of proposed intervention will be about 29.04 crore Tk. Based on the expert opinions, literature review and researcher’s own judgments this study argues that climate change adaptation can only be adequately addressed if action is taken at all levels of government: international, national, regional, and local. Hence the study emphasizes to adopt multi-level governance approach for infrastructure planning to face the challenges of climate change.