Behavioral pattern analysis of solar energy users of Bangladesh and proposal of an incentive regulation model to achieve energy sufficiency

Abstract

In the era of 4th Industrial revolution, energy is a pre-condition for the development of an energy-deficit country like Bangladesh. Bangladesh ranks low with regard to global competitiveness in the context of reliable electricity supply and transparent tariffs. Bangladesh government has already taken a policy decision to arrange 10 percent of total energy from renewable sources whereasonly 3.02% of the target is achieved.Around 5 million Solar Home System (SHS) havealready been installed in Bangladesh to reach the target.A behavioral pattern analysis of these users can find substantial and influential factors which are determinate rationales behind using solar energy. The objective of the research was to find out the solar energy users’usage pattern and factors influencing the pattern. Another core objective of this research was to develop an Incentive Regulation Model based on ‘Solar Energy Data Bank with Virtual Grid Concept’ by analyzing the usage pattern and to test the Incentive Regulation Model. The method used in this research was a qualitative approach with quantitative analysis of the survey data. The methodology included survey in the Solar Home System users with appropriate questionnaire and data analysis and pattern recognition on the received data. The Incentive Regulation Model was developed based on the data and considering the rational expectation of the users. The outcome of this research was the usage pattern of Bangladeshi Solar Energy users and what were the influencing factors that enable them to use solar energy. Based on the survey, an Incentive Regulation Model was also proposed with a new concept of offline virtual grid. As the Model was a proposed one, to justify it WEKA open source data mining software was used whether the incentive helps to grow the number of solar energy users or not. Finally, some policy decisions were derived from the incentive model taking incentive levels, location factors, program design, and monitoring and evaluation strategies for sustainable energy management into account