Prediction of gasoline demand in Bangladesh by dynamic simulation technique

Abstract

Gasoline demand for the automobile fleet ill Bangladesh is predicted using dynamic simulation technique in particular, system dynamics technique. System dynamics have become widely accepted as a tool for .studying complex systems. For analyzing system dynamic model of gasoline demand, a special purpose system simulation language, DYNAMO is used Gasoline demand due to cars depends on fleet fuel efficiency of cars, car use rate, and number of cars in the fleet. Again these variables are also dependent on many technical and socio-economic variables. So a complex system of interrelated socioeconomic and technical variables is established and each relation is emphasised carefully and taken care of equally. Finally the future gasoline demand is forecasted. A number of scenarios are constructed which involve different assumptions about the future price of gasoline, gross domestic product. The work concludes by identifying future research directions, especially with regard to the usefulness of the dynamic simulation technique as a modelling tool in energy sector.